The hottest is to return to the upward channel. Th

2022-08-16
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Returning to the upward channel, the average international crude oil price is expected to rise to $95 this year

since 2010, the international oil price has shown a relatively rare narrow range wave dynamic trend for many years. The WTI crude oil futures price generally fluctuates between $70 and $90, with a peak and valley amplitude of only 34.6%, the smallest fluctuation since 1995. The average price of WTI crude oil futures in the whole year was US $79.6 per barrel, up 28.2% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2011, the global economic growth will slow down slightly, the oil supply will remain relatively loose, the value of the US dollar will continue to weaken, the inflationary pressure will rise, the power of speculation may strengthen and other factors will make the international oil price show a steady upward trend, especially the recent political turmoil in northeast Africa, a major oil producer, has significantly exacerbated the fluctuation of the international oil price. It is preliminarily estimated that the average price of WTI crude oil futures for the whole year is about US $95 per barrel

first, the international oil price showed a rare narrow fluctuation trend in 2010

since 2010, the international oil price has shown a rare narrow fluctuation trend in the past 15 years. It is quite different from the trend of the international oil price rising and rising step by step last year. Since 2010, the international oil price has experienced a rare stable operation trend for many years. On the whole, the WTI crude oil futures price fluctuates in a narrow range between $70 and $90. The highest price in the year is $91.51 on December 23, and the lowest price is $68.01 on May 20. The peak valley amplitude is only 34.6%, which is the smallest fluctuation since 1995. Of course, in May, the international oil price also experienced a sharp drop of 21% in just 13 trading days. The average price of WTI crude oil futures in 2010 was $79.6, up 28.2% year-on-year

II. Analysis of the reasons for the smooth operation of the international oil market in 2010

(I) the mild recovery of the world economy has supported the oil price to remain at a certain price

from the perspective of economic fundamentals, the global economy has experienced a moderate recovery since 2010, and the recovery momentum of developing economies is significantly better than that of developed economies. In 2010, the GDP of the United States increased by 2.9%, that of Japan by 3.9%, and that of the euro zone by 1.7%. Among them, the economic recovery of Germany was strong, with an annual growth rate of 3.6%, the largest since reunification; The economies of emerging economies have recovered strongly. In 2010, China's GDP grew by 10.3%. In the first three quarters, India's GDP grew by 8.6%, 8.8% and 8.9% year-on-year, Brazil's GDP grew by 9%, 8.8% and 6.7%, and Russia's GDP grew by 2.9%, 5.4% and 2.7%. Therefore, after two consecutive years of decline in global oil demand, there has been a restorative growth. The fundamentals of supply and demand support the international oil price to remain at a certain level, which shows that there is little room for the international oil price to operate below $70 a barrel under the background of the world economic recovery

however, the global economic fundamentals do not support the sharp rise in international oil prices. This is because the current world economy is only a moderate recovery, has not yet entered a new round of growth, oil demand is only a restorative growth, and the current global daily oil demand has only recovered to the pre crisis level. The oil commercial inventory of OECD countries is above the average level of the past five years, and the oil surplus capacity of OPEC countries is abundant. Therefore, the relationship between global oil supply and demand has been relatively loose since 2010, which is completely different from the tight balance between global oil supply and demand during the last round of world economic expansion

(II) the role of speculation in promoting oil prices has weakened

under the background of ultra loose monetary policies implemented by countries in response to the financial crisis, the liquidity of the global commodity market is relatively abundant. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that crude oil futures positions (non-commercial long positions) held by speculative funds in the New York market showed an upward trend. In 2010, the proportion of non-commercial long positions in crude oil futures was 20.86%, an increase of 2.57 percentage points over the previous year. The average weekly net long positions in non-commercial crude oil futures were 89300, an increase of nearly 128% over 2009. Although speculative funds remain positively correlated with the trend of oil prices, the role of speculative forces in promoting oil prices is weakening. The reasons are: first, there are many uncertainties in the world economic recovery, especially in the case of relatively loose oil supply and demand, speculative funds dare not easily hype. Second, speculative forces have a deep memory of the painful lesson that the international oil price plummeted from $147 to more than $30 in a relatively short time after the outbreak of the financial crisis. Third, in fact, the inflation level in the world, especially in developed countries, is not high. Fourth, countries have significantly strengthened the supervision of commodity futures market by promoting financial market reform and the political needs of major national elections, which has restrained financial innovation and market freedom in the short term

(III) the trend of the US dollar rose first and then fell in an unknown direction, affecting international oil prices

at the beginning of 2010, due to the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis, the euro depreciated sharply, and the hedging function made the US dollar stronger. According to the data of the Federal Reserve, the nominal dollar index against major currencies rose about 9% in the first half of the year. By the second half of the year, the pace of U.S. economic recovery slowed down, and the resumption of quantitative easing monetary policy and fiscal stimulus plan led to increased inflation expectations in the future. The double deficits of Finance and trade remained high, which made the dollar appear an obvious weakening trend. By early November, the dollar index against major currencies had fallen by 11.8% from its previous high. Therefore, although the trend of the US dollar in 2010 has a great impact on the international oil price, the uncertain trend of the US dollar index rising first and then falling later has prevented the international oil price from rising unilaterally or falling straightly, which is conducive to the stability of the international oil price

(IV) geopolitics and emergencies affecting oil supply have decreased

since 2010, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Latin America, Central Asia and other regions that affect global oil supply has been relatively stable, making it difficult to form the theme of speculative funds to hype oil prices. The political situation in major oil producing countries is relatively stable, and terrorist incidents such as strikes and oil facility explosions have decreased. The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has a certain impact on the ecological environment, but it has little impact on oil supply. In addition, extreme weather in 2010 had a great impact on agricultural production, driving the prices of agricultural products (18.27,0.36,2.01%) to rise sharply, and the Reuters CRB food spot index approached the record high in 2008; Driven by factors such as the continued indiscriminate issuance of currencies, value preservation and appreciation, and risk aversion in major countries, gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs. However, extreme weather and some emergencies have not affected oil supply and demand, especially in the case of relatively loose oil supply and demand, even if there are individual emergencies, they have been diluted by the market

demand is stable and rising. Oil prices are expected to rise this year.

III. international oil prices will show an upward trend in 2011.

(I) global economic growth will slow down slightly, and oil demand will maintain rapid growth

1. The global economy will maintain steady growth

looking forward to 2011, the world economy will gradually shift from a rapid recovery stimulated by policies to a stable growth stage supported by the internal driving force of the economy, Especially driven by the relatively strong recovery of emerging economies, the risk of a double recession in the world economy is small. Most institutions predict that the world economic growth rate in 2011 is lower than that in 2010. On January 25th, 2011, IMF predicted in the revised World Economic Outlook report that the world economy will grow by 4.4% in 2011, 0.6 percentage points slower than that in 2010. The biggest change is that under the influence of policies such as the second quantitative easing policy and the extension of the tax reduction plan for two years, the U.S. economic growth in 2011 is expected to exceed that in 2010, which has a great impact on judging the growth of the whole world economy

2. The risks of global economic growth will remain prominent.

the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis has not been completely eliminated, the world economy has not entered a virtuous cycle of steady growth, and systemic and structural risks are still prominent. First, the global economy is in the superposition period of "short, medium and long" economic cycles such as inventory adjustment, equipment renewal, real estate adjustment and technological innovation. Second, major national policies will be divided, and global policy coordination will become more difficult. The United States still borrowed money from the world to implement the fiscal stimulus plan, while the European debt crisis made Europe determined to implement the fiscal reconstruction plan. Major developed economies still maintain interest rates, and recently the United States has restarted quantitative easing policy; Developing countries began to tighten monetary policy due to inflationary pressure. The acceptable experimental force of the three fixtures is a very important indicator of the fixture. After the financial crisis and economic crisis, European and American countries will generally face financial crisis. Fourth, the world is facing a jobless recovery, with employment prospects remaining sluggish and income growth slowing, which in turn affects household consumption. Fifth, as the global economic recovery slows down, employment pressure increases and the political needs of the general election, the risk of trade war and currency war increases. In particular, the recent turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has brought new variables to global economic growth. The follow-up impact of the financial crisis and livelihood problems such as high inflation, high unemployment and high poverty have seriously troubled the Middle East countries. Corruption, power politics and other factors have led to political instability and social unrest in central and northeast Africa, leading to sharp fluctuations in the international oil market and stock market

3. The global oil demand will maintain a stable growth

in 2011, driven by the stable growth of the global economy, especially the strong growth momentum of developing economies, the global oil demand will maintain a relatively strong trend. According to the February oil market monthly report of the International Energy Agency, the global daily oil demand in 2011 increased by 1.5 million barrels year-on-year, an increase of 1.7%. According to OPEC's monthly report on oil market in February, the global daily oil demand in 2011 increased by 1.4 million barrels year-on-year, an increase of 1.6%. According to the report of short term energy outlook in February of the US energy information administration, the global daily oil demand in 2011 increased by 1.45 million barrels year-on-year, an increase of 1.7%; In terms of classification, the daily oil demand of OECD countries was basically the same as that of the previous year, while the daily oil demand of non OECD countries increased by 1.47 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Although the forecasts of various international institutions for the increase in demand are not completely consistent, after two years of restorative growth, the global daily oil demand will return to the pre crisis level

(II) stable increase in oil supply, more surplus capacity and abundant inventory

1. The global oil supply will maintain a stable increase

the international oil price level since 2010 is basically in line with the current expectation of OPEC countries to maintain the international oil price at $70-80 per barrel. Of course, with the depreciation of the US dollar and the strengthening of inflation expectations, the oil price level expected by OPEC may further increase, However, in general, at the current oil price level, OPEC will not take measures to limit production, which will help oil producing countries stabilize supply. According to the report of short term energy outlook in February of the US energy information administration, the global daily oil supply in 2011 was 87.78 million barrels, an increase of 1.43 million barrels over the previous year, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, the daily oil supply of OPEC increased by 1.13 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the daily oil supply of non OPEC countries increased slightly by 310000 barrels

2. OPEC still maintains a large-scale oil surplus capacity

according to the prediction of the U.S. energy information administration, OPEC's crude oil surplus capacity will remain high in 2011, which is expected to reach 4.72 million barrels/day, which will greatly exceed the average level of about 2.79 million barrels/day from 2000 to 2010. Maintaining a large-scale surplus capacity has become one of the foundations for stabilizing oil prices in the international market

3. Commercial oil inventories in developed countries 1. Crystalline materials will still be relatively abundant

by the end of 2010, OECD national commercial oil depots

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