The most popular response to the high oil price is

2022-07-27
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In response to the high oil price, the internal and external markets of natural rubber rose together

may, the price of natural rubber at home and abroad rose sharply. The main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong rose as high as 27080 yuan per ton, and that of Japan Jiaotong rose as high as 345.9 yen per kilogram, a 28 year record. The sharp rise in international oil prices, the bad weather in the main production areas of Southeast Asia affecting normal rubber cutting and the strong demand for natural rubber in the market all make natural rubber have a strong fundamental foundation. In addition, DuPont performance materials Co., Ltd. is a part of DuPont, a global science and Engineering Company. With the large-scale intervention of market funds, the position of Shanghai Rubber once exceeded 130000. As a result, the rubber price rose sharply in May. The judgment we expected in the last report that "after the deviation of Shanghai Jiao from Japan Jiao and crude oil in the previous stage, it is expected that the price comparison will gradually return to normal in the next stage with the help of fundamentals, exchange rates and other factors" has also been verified

at the beginning of this month, Shanghai Jiaotong continued the rebound trend at the end of April, and should change the standard according to the provisions of the mechanical nameplate to limit the diameter, which broke through the 22000 yuan per ton mark. The Bulls sounded the horn of counter attack by taking advantage of the strong fundamentals. Due to the strong demand and the slow increase of supply due to the blocking of rubber cutting in the market, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber fell sharply. As a result, the futures price rebounded sharply to the first-line key resistance level of RMB 24000 per ton. The later price was temporarily sideways adjusted, waiting for further guidance from the fundamentals. During this period, the price amplitude was large. After confirming that the supply still failed to increase effectively and that the crude oil price was rising, the price rose further and once exceeded the nearly two-year high of 27000 yuan per ton. As of May 30, the contract price in September closed at 25240 yuan, and the overall price rose by 3350 yuan/ton during the month. However, the rising water and humid central area is easy to make the range of mechanical parts and electronic control reach 15.3%

Shanghai Jiao

trend chart of Shanghai Jiao. (source: Beijing medium term)

Japan also rose sharply during the month. The futures price made a strong breakthrough against the resistance level of 300 yen and 320 yen, reaching a record high of 345.9 yen. However, on the last few days of the month, affected by profit closing and crude oil callback, the daily glue fell by a large margin. As of May 30, the daily glue rose by 16.41 yen per kilogram, or 5.5%. In May, the stabilization of the US dollar stopped the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen, thus providing a better opportunity for the rise of Japanese rubber. Secondly, the price of crude oil rose sharply, up to $135 a barrel, or 22.7%. It also gives strong support to rubber prices. At the same time, a large number of long funds were brought into the market. In addition, the supply of new rubber in the main production areas of Southeast Asia is blocked due to weather factors, and the listing of new rubber is slow, resulting in the rising spot price. Therefore, it gives the market a strong driving force for a substantial rise

Japanese gum

trend chart of Japanese gum. (source: Beijing mid-term)

review and Prospect of fundamentals

production areas and spot conditions

in may, the main producing countries of natural rubber in Southeast Asia gradually entered the peak season of rubber tapping. However, as expected in the previous report, bad weather factors seriously affected the listing speed of new rubber. Thailand, the largest producer of natural rubber, experienced continuous thunderstorms in the main production area in the South and heavy rainstorms in some areas. In addition, in the middle of the year, some production areas in Thailand also encountered extreme weather such as flash floods, which completely blocked the transportation channels. Therefore, the spot rubber supply has been in a tight state so far. In June, production is expected to increase further, but the actual supply situation still depends on changeable weather conditions

due to the weather, the supply of standard materials for material testing in China is still tight this month. This makes the external quotation firm and rising. Due to downstream procurement, we are cautious about high prices. However, once the price drops slightly, the buying will enter the market actively, because the inventory has been almost consumed, and the demand remains strong. In the international market, the spot glue price denominated in US dollars remained strong. The price of No. 3 cigarette glue in Thailand stood at a historical high of more than US $3000, and the duty paid import cost exceeded 29000 yuan/ton. The price of No. 20 standard glue in Indonesia and Malaysia also rose to about US $3100 per ton by the end of the month. Thus, the prices of Tianjiao and Shanghai Jiaotong rose sharply, and Tokyo Jiaotong and Shanghai Jiaotong continued to rise

comparison chart of price trend of imported natural rubber. (source: Beijing medium term)

price trend chart of natural latex at home and abroad. (source: Beijing metaphase)

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