The hottest floating cloud is still the cornerston

Cloud or cornerstone listed company "super order" unsolved question mark

cloud or cornerstone listed company "super order" unsolved question mark

China Construction machinery information

Guide: Railway Construction in full swing frequently sends super orders to listed companies. On November 30, Jinyi industry announced that it had won the bid for the high-speed rail fastener order of some sections of the Beijing Shenyang passenger dedicated line, with a bid winning amount of 127million yuan. Since this year, Jinyi industry has accumulated high-speed rail fasteners

the railway construction in full swing has frequently sent "super orders" to listed companies

on November 30, Jinyi industry announced that it had won the bid for the high-speed rail fastener order of some sections of the Beijing Shenyang passenger dedicated line, with a bid winning amount of 127million yuan. Since this year, Jinyi industry has received more than 1billion yuan of high-speed rail fastener orders, and the company's main business revenue last year was only 1.7 billion yuan

on the same day, CSR also received a "big gift". The company signed a sales contract for HXN5 high-power diesel locomotive with the Beijing Railway Bureau of the Ministry of railways, with a contract amount of 5.3 billion yuan. This contract amount accounted for 11.4% of CSR's main business revenue in 2009

it is under the protection of these large orders that CSR and Jinyi industries have gone out of a trend completely different from the index. Since September, the range of CSR has increased by 32.94%, while Jinyi industry has also increased by 41.09%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 7.76%

at a time when the market is full of uncertainty, the escort of super orders can be described as a solid cornerstone of the future performance of listed companies

taking the statistical "big order" concept index as an example, the index rose from 2974.09 on July 1 to 4280.88 at the close of December 2, with an increase of 43.94% since the second half of this year; The Shanghai Composite Index rose only 18.56% over the same period

on the other hand, orders in hand do not mean that performance is at ease

lessons learned from the past, such as China shipbuilding (), which once rushed to the first high price of A-share with a large number of orders that can support the performance for three years in 2007. However, under the suffering of the financial crisis, it experienced the embarrassment of no order for seven consecutive months. 1. The reproducibility of environmental conditions, and its share price also fell to the freezing point of 30 yuan

in addition, the policy risk, exchange risk, order cancellation and other risks of overseas orders are the sword of Damocles hanging high above the super order. For example, the 34.4 billion yuan overseas "super order legend" of Hangxiao steel structure () is a floating cloud and has become a tool for some funds to draw chestnuts from the fire

bullet train procurement -- the source of super orders

the grand blueprint of China's railway is becoming the "eye of the storm" of super orders

in addition to the above 5.3 billion yuan diesel locomotive orders, CSR also received 3.4 billion yuan worth of bullet train orders in September this year

on September 15 this year, CSR announced that its holding subsidiary CSR Qingdao Sifang locomotive and rolling stock Co., Ltd. signed a sales contract for kilometer speed EMUs with Wuhan Railway Bureau, with a total contract amount of about 3.4 billion yuan. "Delivery is expected to start in October 2010 and complete in January 2011."

this order amount accounted for 7.3% of CSR's operating revenue in 2009

since the second half of this year, large orders from CSR have poured in

on August 2, 2010, Qingdao Sifang Bombardier railway transportation equipment Co., Ltd., which is indirectly 50% owned by CSR, signed a sales contract for 250 km/h EMUs with Chengdu Railway Bureau and Nanchang Railway Bureau respectively. The total amount of the above two contracts is 5.16 billion yuan, which is expected to be delivered from September 2010 to may 2011

CSR also has overseas orders

on July 23, 2010, CSR Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhuzhou Electric Power"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CSR, signed an inter city rail vehicle sales contract with the Ministry of transport of Malaysia, with a contract amount of about 1.894 billion ringgit, equivalent to about 3.978 billion yuan. This order amount is also equivalent to 8.6% of CSR's operating revenue in 2009

a week earlier, Zhuzhou Electric Power just received the letter of acceptance from China national technology import and Export Corporation, confirming that the company won the bid for 590 high-power AC drive six axle 7200kw electric locomotives, with a total value of about 8.6 billion yuan. The above bid winning price accounted for about 18.5% of the operating revenue of CSR in 2009

based on this calculation, excluding the joint venture company, CSR reaped 21.278 billion yuan in large orders in the second half of this year alone, accounting for 45.8% of the operating revenue in 2009

almost all the above orders were delivered in 2011. For CSR, part of its performance next year can be locked

under the construction of high-speed railway, the number of multiple units delivered by CSR this year is much higher than last year

according to the statistics of UBS Securities, CSR delivered 52 multiple units per month, "we expect to deliver another 40 units in the fourth quarter of 2010, making the annual delivery reach 92 units (equivalent to 736 units), an increase of 88% year-on-year."

UBS Securities predicts that "the delivery of multiple units will almost double to 180 in 2011."

judging from the current orders held by CSR, its performance before 2012 is not worrying

although the current dynamic P/E ratio of CSR has reached 33 times, the institutions are unanimously optimistic about it

UBS Securities has given CSR A-share a target price of 9.33 yuan, which is still a lot of room from this target price based on the closing price of 6.82 yuan on December 2. GF Securities also offered a target price of 7.5 yuan

from the perspective of hand-held orders, CNR has more abundant orders

in the second half of this year, CNR's Dalian Locomotive and rolling stock Co., Ltd. and Datong Electric Locomotive Co., Ltd. won orders from China national technology import and Export Corporation for 390 and 220 high-power AC drive six axle 7200kw electric locomotives, worth about 9billion yuan

Changchun Rail Transit Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the listed company, signed a subway vehicle sales contract with Chongqing Rail Transit (Group) Co., Ltd. worth 625 million yuan, which will be delivered on July 31, 2011

on October 13, 2010, CNR announced a series of super order contracts, including the sales contract of EMUs worth 2.7 billion yuan signed by the holding subsidiary Changchun Railway Passenger Car Co., Ltd. and Beijing Railway Bureau; Tangshan railway passenger car Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company, signed a railway passenger car sales contract worth 760million yuan with China Railway Construction Investment Corporation; Qiqihar Rail Transit Equipment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, signed an export contract of coal gondola with a value of about 270 million yuan with vale Mozambique

the year-on-year growth rate was 47.34%, and the said contracts totaled 5.2 billion yuan, accounting for 12.84% of the company's main business revenue in 2009

compared with CSR, CNR has more orders in the field of multiple units

as of September 2010, the total number of orders on hand of CNR reached 130billion yuan, of which 70billion yuan was orders related to multiple units, while the orders of multiple units of CSR in the same period were 49billion yuan

"compared with CNR, CSR has the advantage of relatively high technical platform and profit margin, but the disadvantage is that it has fewer orders than CNR." A researcher in the machinery industry of a securities company in Shanghai said to

however, the current valuations of the above two companies are not cheap. The dynamic P/E ratio of CNR has also exceeded 30 times, and the closing price of CSR H shares on December 2 was HK $9.18, which has also been inverted with a shares

more institutions have laid down heavy troops in the "north and South vehicles"

the three quarterly reports of the above two companies show that Longyuan industry is the second largest shareholder of CSR and the third largest shareholder of CNR, holding 88.04 million shares and 58.3625 million shares respectively. In addition, securities companies' collective wealth management products Dongfeng No. 5, fund Great Wall brand optimization and West China Securities have layout in two listed companies

railway construction - the 12th Five Year Plan reverses pessimistic expectations

only in terms of the orders in hand, the performance expectations of the two giants of railway construction are still relatively optimistic. Since September, China railway construction has frequently issued announcements of large orders. The third quarterly report of China Railway showed that by the end of September, the company had signed a total of 568.9 billion yuan of new contracts, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%, and had completed 120.7% of the plan at the beginning of the year

compared with the train manufacturing enterprises CSR and CNR, the two giants of railway infrastructure, China Railway and China railway construction, are experiencing painful moments

CRCC lost 1.36 billion yuan in the third quarter due to a huge loss of 4.153 billion yuan in Saudi Arabia. The share price was also depressed, hitting a record low on November 30, and the closing price of 6.84 yuan on December 2 has fallen 25% from the issue price of 9.08 yuan. China Railway is also currently under the issue price of 4.8 yuan

since September, China railway construction has frequently issued announcements of large orders

on September 1, China Railway Construction announced that its companies won the bid for the Shanghai Kunming Railway Passenger Dedicated Line and some sections of Changsha Kunming railway passenger dedicated line, totaling 39.1 billion yuan

on September 4, China Railway Construction Corporation won the bid for some sections of Ganzhou Longyan railway expansion and reconstruction project, Wuhan Xianning intercity railway, Wuhan Xiaogan intercity railway, Zhangjiakou Tangshan, Handan (Xingtai) Huanghua port, with a total contract of 25 billion yuan

in the third quarter of this year, China railway construction has signed 226billion yuan of new contracts, an increase of 70.9% year-on-year; In January, the company's cumulative new contract amount reached 539.5 billion yuan, an increase of 38.5% year-on-year. Both are much higher than the year-on-year growth rate of China Railway in the same period

"at present, the uncompleted contract of the company is 941.6 billion yuan (including 615.5 billion yuan of railway project contract), which is about twice its estimated operating income in 2010." Guoyuan Securities said in its report

"the market's expectations for CRCC's Saudi Arabia project may be too pessimistic. At least at the price that has fallen so far, I think CRCC still has a valuation advantage." Said an industry researcher at a securities firm in Beijing

Haitong Securities' performance forecasts for China Railway Construction in 2011 are 0.44 yuan, 0.86 yuan and 1.01 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 6.84 yuan on December 2, and the price earnings ratio in 2011 is only 8 times

the risk of repeating the mistakes of the Saudi Arabia project is not large in Haitong Securities' view

(China Railway Construction) foreign uncompleted projects are about US $18.253 billion. Because many projects are under construction according to Chinese standards, and most of them are engineering packages, the cost is still controllable, and it is unlikely that large-scale losses will occur again. " Haitong Securities said in its report

China Railway is also full of orders

the third quarterly report of China Railway showed that by the end of September, the company had signed a total of 568.9 billion yuan of new contracts, an increase of 36.8% year-on-year, and had completed 120.7% of the plan at the beginning of the year. Among them, the newly signed contracts in infrastructure, survey and design, industry and other sectors were 493.9 billion yuan, 7.63 billion yuan and 11.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.2%, 27.9% and 23.5% respectively

as of the end of September, the company's outstanding contracts totaled 932.6 billion yuan, 269.6% of its revenue in 2009

CICC predicted the performance of China Railway in 2010 and 2011 as 0.36 yuan and